Separating fact from fiction

African nations are among the most vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. Although the continent contributes relatively little to the global greenhouse gas emissions causing climate change, it is the continent that is most affected.

Africa’s climate has warmed more than the global average resulting in unpredictable rainfall patterns and more extreme weather events. Sea-level rise around African coastlines has been faster too, triggering more frequent and severe floods, erosion, and salinity in low-lying cities.

Africa’s economic and social development challenges are sometimes given as a reason why climate change should not be a priority. However, climate change poses a serious threat to human health and safety, food, water and energy security, political stability and economies. So climate change will amplify the continent’s development challenges. Add that to the continent’s projected population growth – 2.5 billion by 2050 – and the real question is how can Africa NOT prioritise climate change.

Natural climate variability is a reality, but the scientific evidence overwhelmingly shows that human activities are accelerating climate change.

Science tells us that the current rate of warming is unprecedented in recent history. Human actions, such as burning fossil fuels and deforestation, are releasing greenhouse gases into the atmosphere, trapping heat and causing global temperatures to rise at an alarming rate.

The evidence of this comes from multiple sources, including ice core samples, tree rings and temperature records. These consistently demonstrate that human-induced factors are driving the current climate trends. Climate scientists around the world have corroborated these findings with extensive research.

Natural factors like volcanic eruptions and solar radiation changes can influence climate, but their impact is relatively minor compared to human-induced factors. Natural cycles cannot explain the rapid pace of the climate change observed in recent decades.

We are responsible for the climate change we are experiencing. And we are responsible for doing something about it.

African nations combined currently contribute less than 4% of global greenhouse gas emissions (GHG). A small handful of African countries – South Africa, Egypt, Algeria, Nigeria Libya and Morocco – are responsible for most of this contribution.  

While Africa’s current contribution to climate change is small and its historical contribution is negligible, the continent still has a critical role in the global carbon footprint. This role should not be overlooked, especially looking to the future.

As African nations undergo rapid urbanisation and industrial development, the demand for energy has led to a rise in emissions. Deforestation, land-use changes, and agricultural practices in Africa also have a big impact on carbon dioxide levels. Vast amounts of stored carbon are released and more is generated, while the land’s ability to absorb carbon is reduced.

The continent’s growing population and need for development will drive a much higher contribution to climate change if that development is not sustainable.

Climate change affects all regions, including urban centers. While rural communities are often more vulnerable to climate-related risks like extreme weather events and agricultural disruptions, urban areas are also at risk.

Municipal water supplies and waste removal systems are affected by water scarcity. Urban reliance on rural areas for food supply makes urban areas equally at risk when climate change affects food security. Urban centres are also vulnerable to air pollution, heatwaves and the pressure that climate change can place on infrastructure.

Extreme weather events and rising sea levels as a result of climate change increase the flood risk to many cities and urban areas can become ‘heat islands’ that exacerbate heat-related illnesses. These areas are also more likely to attract more people as climate change makes it harder to exist in rural areas. Climate change knows no boundaries. Rural and urban communities need to build resilience in the face of climate change.

The argument that African nations need to exploit fossil fuels such as coal, oil, and gas to meet their development needs overlooks the continent’s exceptional renewable energy potential and the evolving global energy landscape. Investing in clean energy comes with many advantages, including energy security, job creation, and sustainable economic growth, without the environmental degradation and health hazards associated with fossil fuels.

Reliance on fossil fuels also perpetuates the continent’s vulnerability to volatile global markets. Access to energy is essential for development, but African countries have an opportunity to leapfrog to cleaner and more sustainable energy sources, such as solar, wind, or even green hydrogen, which would be better for energy security, job creation, and public health while reducing greenhouse gas emissions.

Natural gas is often made out to be a cleaner alternative to coal and oil. However, it is not the answer to addressing climate change in Africa. Natural gas may emit less carbon dioxide when burnt compared to other fossil fuels, but the process of extracting, transporting and combusting it to produce energy still releases methane, which is a potent greenhouse gas.

Some natural gas extraction processes, such as fracking, are highly destructive to the environment and contribute to the contamination of precious water resources, habitat destruction and harm to local communities and ecosystems.

Investing in natural gas infrastructure would also lock African nations into a dependency on fossil fuels that would prevent the continent from transitioning to more sustainable, renewable energy sources. Africa’s abundant renewable energy sources are a much better option to achieve energy security and economic development.